Costa RicaversusMexico

13 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Costa Rica won by 42 runs

Costa Rica20.0 overs120/9 Mexico18.0 overs78/10 Los Reyes Polo Club, Alajuela ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Mexico more likely to win

25%Costa Rica75%Mexico

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Mexico rate stronger than Costa Rica (1,328 vs 1,167 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Mexico won 2 and Costa Rica won 0
Costa Rica are playing at home in Costa Rica

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Costa Rica started on 25%; Costa Rica batted first.

Costa Rica’s chance of winning (%) · Mexico is the rest

Costa Rica's chances ranged from 12% to 100% during the match (Mexico: 0% to 88%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.2: D Rawat to Shoaib Rafiq, Shoaib Rafiq out. Costa Rica up from 35% to 49%.
2nd inns 8.4: D Rawat to Shantanu Kaveri, Shantanu Kaveri out. Costa Rica up from 50% to 67%.
2nd inns 10.3: Imran Ahmed Kaneez to Praveen Santhanakrishnan, Praveen Santhanakrishnan out. Costa Rica up from 63% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Costa Rica120/9 Mexico78/10

Innings 2

Mexico

78/1018.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mexico batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sanjay Waghcaught and bowled · S Murari 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b S Murari	5	17	0	0	29.41
Shashikant Laxmancaught · YJC Altamirano · Dhanush Ganesh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · YJC Altamirano · b Dhanush Ganesh	2	5	0	0	40.00
Praveen Santhanakrishnanbowled · Imran Ahmed Kaneez 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Imran Ahmed Kaneez	26	27	1	1	96.30
Shoaib Rafiqbowled · D Rawat 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b D Rawat	4	9	0	0	44.44
Shantanu Kaveribowled · D Rawat 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b D Rawat	0	2	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Dhanush Ganesh1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	12	2	3.00	3
S Pillai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	8	0	2.67	1
D Rawat0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	2	6.75	4
S Murari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	1	4.50	0
Imran Ahmed Kaneez1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	1	0	2	0.00	0
Sharina Ravikumar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	3	5.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	2	2/0
3	3	5/1
4	3	8/1
5	5	13/1
6	6	19/2
7	11	30/2
8	4	34/2
9	3	37/4
10	6	43/4
11	1	44/6
12	4	48/6
13	8	56/6
14	2	58/6
15	6	64/7
16	1	65/9
17	4	69/9
18	9	78/10

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