MI New YorkversusSan Francisco Unicorns

15 Jun 2025 · T20

Oakland Coliseum, Oakland · Venue photograph

Recorded result

San Francisco Unicorns won by 3 wickets

MI New York20.0 overs182/7 San Francisco Unicorns19.1 overs188/7 Oakland Coliseum, Oakland ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

MI New York started on 43%; MI New York batted first.

MI New York’s chance of winning (%) · San Francisco Unicorns is the rest

MI New York's chances ranged from 2% to 94% during the match (San Francisco Unicorns: 6% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.1: Sunny Patel to Hassan Khan, Hassan Khan out. MI New York up from 50% to 74%.
2nd inns 15.3: Ehsan Adil to CJ Anderson, CJ Anderson out. MI New York up from 48% to 74%.
2nd inns 16.4: TA Boult to XC Bartlett, six by XC Bartlett. San Francisco Unicorns up from 26% to 46%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.