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England Women tour of Ireland · 2024 · Women
9 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 73%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 28%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Una Raymond-Hoeybowled · Freya Kemp 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Freya Kemp | 22 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 59.46 |
| Gaby Lewisbowled · Kate Cross 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kate Cross | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Amy Hunterlbw · Kate Cross 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kate Cross | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Orla Prendergastlbw · Kate Cross 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kate Cross | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Leah Paulcaught · Bess Heath · Lauren Filer 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Bess Heath · b Lauren Filer | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Rebecca Stokellcaught · Tammy Beaumont · Lauren Filer0 fours · 0 sixes |
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Tammy Beaumont · b Lauren Filer |
| 5 |
| 24 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 20.83 |
| Arlene Kellybowled · Lauren Filer 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lauren Filer | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| A Tectorbowled · Georgia Davis 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Georgia Davis | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Jane Maguirelbw · Freya Kemp 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Freya Kemp | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| FA Sargentlbw · Georgia Davis 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Georgia Davis | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| Aimee Maguirenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kate Cross0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Lauren Filer2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Freya Kemp2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 2.33 | 3 | 0 |
| Georgia Davis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.96 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (Gaby Lewis, 0.3) · 2-3 (Amy Hunter, 1.0) · 3-7 (Orla Prendergast, 2.3) · 4-8 (Leah Paul, 3.1) · 5-24 (Rebecca Stokell, 9.3) · 6-24 (Arlene Kelly, 9.5) · 7-35 (A Tector, 12.5) · 8-35 (Una Raymond-Hoey, 13.1) · 9-43 (Jane Maguire, 15.2) · 10-45 (FA Sargent, 16.5)
Recorded target: 321 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/2 |
| 2 | 4 | 7/2 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/3 |
| 4 | 0 | 8/4 |
| 5 | 2 | 10/4 |
| 6 | 3 | 13/4 |
| 7 | 2 | 15/4 |
| 8 | 1 | 16/4 |
| 9 | 8 | 24/4 |
| 10 | 0 | 24/6 |
| 11 | 3 | 27/6 |
| 12 | 2 | 29/6 |
| 13 | 6 | 35/7 |
| 14 | 0 | 35/8 |
| 15 | 8 | 43/8 |
| 16 | 0 | 43/9 |
| 17 | 2 | 45/10 |
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paige Scholfield: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hollie Armitage: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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