ThailandversusHong Kong

26 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Thailand won by 89 runs

Thailand20.0 overs170/1 Hong Kong20.0 overs81/7 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

63%Thailand37%Hong Kong

Why

In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 6 and Hong Kong won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Thailand (1,632 vs 1,614 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 61%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Hong Kong is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 60% to 100% during the match (Hong Kong: 0% to 40%).

Biggest swings

1.3: M Wai Siu to N Chantam, four by N Chantam. Thailand up from 62% to 65%.
2.4: KY Chan to A Suwanchonrathi, A Suwanchonrathi out. Hong Kong up from 33% to 39%.
11.1: Chan Sau Har to N Chantam, 1 run to N Chantam. Thailand up from 78% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand170/1 Hong Kong81/7

Innings 2

Hong Kong

81/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Natasha Milesbowled · S Chaturongrattana 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b S Chaturongrattana	5	12	0	0	41.67
Shanzeen Shahzadcaught · Natthakan Chantam · Suleeporn Laomi 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Natthakan Chantam · b Suleeporn Laomi	21	37	2	0	56.76
SYD Chancaught · Phannita Maya · Onnicha Kamchomphu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Phannita Maya · b Onnicha Kamchomphu	15	27	0	0	55.56
Kary Chancaught · Aphisara Suwanchonrathi · S Chaturongrattana 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aphisara Suwanchonrathi · b S Chaturongrattana	3	5	0	0	60.00
M Bibicaught · Phannita Maya · Onnicha Kamchomphu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Phannita Maya · b Onnicha Kamchomphu	8	13	0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Phannita Maya0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	0	5.25	3
T Putthawong0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	1	4.25	1
S Chaturongrattana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	11	2	2.75	0
Suleeporn Laomi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	1	4.75	2
Onnicha Kamchomphu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	11	2	2.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	2	4/0
3	4	8/0
4	4	12/0
5	6	18/0
6	2	20/1
7	4	24/1
8	3	27/1
9	4	31/1
10	3	34/1
11	5	39/2
12	3	42/2
13	6	48/3
14	1	49/3
15	6	55/3
16	4	59/5
17	2	61/6
18	5	66/7
19	9	75/7
20	6	81/7

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