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Estonia tour of Malta · 2025 · Men
7 May 2025 · T20
Estonia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Malta started on 27%; Malta batted first.
Malta's chances ranged from 20% to 100% during the match (Estonia: 0% to 80%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Habib Khancaught · R Dianish · D Marks 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · R Dianish · b D Marks | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
| S Goochcaught · J Kunnanchirakkal · Jaswinder Singh 6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · J Kunnanchirakkal · b Jaswinder Singh | 43 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 195.45 |
| Ali Masoodrun out · J Kunnanchirakkal · D Marks 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · J Kunnanchirakkal | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Sahil Chauhanbowled · D Marks 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b D Marks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Arslan Amjadcaught and bowled · Jaspal Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jaspal Singh | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 61.54 |
| caught · SB Patel · b Jaswinder Singh |
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 37.50 |
| R Baruahrun out · R Dianish, E Mathew · P Pushparajan 3 fours · 4 sixes | run out · R Dianish, E Mathew | 48 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 218.18 |
|---|
| M Vaikcaught and bowled · P Pushparajan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b P Pushparajan | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| A Paulcaught · R Dianish · VP Thamotharam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Dianish · b VP Thamotharam | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| K Vislapuulbw · P Pushparajan 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b P Pushparajan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| S Hooknot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mehboob Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
| D Marks0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaswinder Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 7.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaspal Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 12.00 | 2 | 0 |
| P Pushparajan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| VP Thamotharam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-40 (Habib Khan, 3.3) · 2-55 (Ali Masood, 5.4) · 3-55 (Sahil Chauhan, 5.5) · 4-55 (S Gooch, 6.1) · 5-64 (Elias Hasan, 8.2) · 6-89 (Arslan Amjad, 11.2) · 7-125 (R Baruah, 14.1) · 8-126 (M Vaik, 14.3) · 9-126 (K Vislapuu, 14.5) · 10-128 (A Paul, 15.4)
Recorded target: 230 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 17/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 30/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 40/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 41/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 47/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 55/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 60/4 |
| 8 | 3 | 63/4 |
| 9 | 4 | 67/5 |
| 10 | 13 | 80/5 |
| 11 | 9 | 89/5 |
| 12 | 4 | 93/6 |
| 13 | 12 | 105/6 |
| 14 | 19 | 124/6 |
| 15 | 2 | 126/9 |
| 16 | 2 | 128/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.