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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
9 Jul 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Germany more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Germany started on 76%; Germany batted first.
Germany's chances ranged from 56% to 100% during the match (Sweden: 0% to 45%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Mundracaught · Fayaz Khan · Zahid Zadran 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fayaz Khan · b Zahid Zadran | 14 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 116.67 |
| Imal Zuwakcaught · Sachin Mandy · Zahid Zadran 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sachin Mandy · b Zahid Zadran | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
| Abdur Rahman Sudaiscaught · B Kohler-Cadmore · Muslim Yar 2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · B Kohler-Cadmore · b Muslim Yar | 36 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 150.00 |
| Choudry Share Alicaught · Muslim Yar · Fayaz Khan 2 fours · 6 sixes | caught · Muslim Yar · b Fayaz Khan | 58 | 27 | 2 | 6 | 214.81 |
| SKR Mallidicaught · Musadiq Ahmed · Ghulam Ahmadi 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Musadiq Ahmed · b Ghulam Ahmadi | 12 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 75.00 |
| Khalid Zahidrun out · Musadiq Ahmed, Sachin Mandy · Musadiq Ahmed 1 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Musadiq Ahmed, Sachin Mandy | 20 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 222.22 |
|---|
| Abdul Naser Baluchcaught · Harmanjot Singh · Musadiq Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harmanjot Singh · b Musadiq Ahmed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Saeed Ahmed (2)caught · B Kohler-Cadmore · Ghulam Ahmadi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Kohler-Cadmore · b Ghulam Ahmadi | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Samiullah Rahmanirun out · Sachin Mandy · Fayaz Khan 3 fours · 4 sixes | run out · Sachin Mandy | 41 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 241.18 |
|---|
| Hamid Mahmoodnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 14* | 10 | 1 | 1 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 5 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sajid Liaqat0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 15.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Zahid Zadran0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Muslim Yar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Musadiq Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 3 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 9.75 | 1 | 3 |
| Ghulam Ahmadi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 11.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Fayaz Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 21.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-18 (Imal Zuwak, 1.5) · 2-41 (A Mundra, 3.5) · 3-68 (Abdur Rahman Sudais, 8.2) · 4-127 (Choudry Share Ali, 12.3) · 5-155 (Khalid Zahid, 14.4) · 6-155 (Abdul Naser Baluch, 14.5) · 7-158 (Saeed Ahmed (2), 15.3) · 8-160 (SKR Mallidi, 15.5) · 9-218 (Samiullah Rahmani, 20.0)
Recorded target: 221 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 18/1 |
| 3 | 19 | 37/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 41/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 43/2 |
| 6 | 12 | 55/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 62/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 67/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 71/3 |
| 10 | 8 | 79/3 |
| 11 | 19 | 98/3 |
| 12 | 19 | 117/3 |
| 13 | 23 | 140/4 |
| 14 | 7 | 147/4 |
| 15 | 9 | 156/6 |
| 16 | 10 | 166/8 |
| 17 | 8 | 174/8 |
| 18 | 20 | 194/8 |
| 19 | 5 | 199/8 |
| 20 | 19 | 218/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.