South AfricaversusIndia

14 Dec 2025 · T20

Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium, Dharamsala · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 7 wickets

South Africa20.0 overs117/10 India15.5 overs120/3 Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium, Dharamsala ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

15%South Africa85%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,812 vs 1,585 on our results rating)
India are playing at home in India
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and South Africa won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 14%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 14% during the match (India: 86% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.4: Arshdeep Singh to RR Hendricks, RR Hendricks out. India up from 87% to 92%.
1.2: Harshit Rana to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. India up from 93% to 96%.
3.1: Harshit Rana to D Brevis, D Brevis out. India up from 96% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa117/10 India120/3

Innings 2

India

120/315.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Abhishek Sharmacaught · Aiden Markram · Corbin Bosch 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Aiden Markram · b Corbin Bosch	35	18	3	3	194.44
Shubman Gillbowled · Marco Jansen 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Marco Jansen	28	28	5	0	100.00
Tilak Varmanot out 3 fours · 0 sixes	not out	26*	34	3	0	76.47
Suryakumar Yadavcaught · Ottniel Baartman · Lungi Ngidi 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ottniel Baartman · b Lungi Ngidi	12	11	2	0	109.09

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	1	7.67	0
Marco Jansen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	1	8.00	1
Ottniel Baartman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	34	0	8.87	0
Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	1	6.00	0
Anrich Nortje0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	0	4.67	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	16	16/0
2	16	32/0
3	10	42/0
4	7	49/0
5	11	60/0
6	8	68/1
7	7	75/1
8	8	83/1
9	2	85/1
10	3	88/1
11	3	91/1
12	1	92/2
13	3	95/2
14	6	101/2
15	8	109/3
16	11	120/3

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