PakistanversusIndia

28 Sept 2025 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 5 wickets

Pakistan19.1 overs146/10 India19.4 overs150/5 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

20%Pakistan80%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Pakistan (1,814 vs 1,660 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and Pakistan won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 18%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 3% to 58% during the match (India: 42% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: Haris Rauf to S Dube, six by S Dube. India up from 65% to 90%.
2nd inns 18.6: Faheem Ashraf to S Dube, S Dube out. Pakistan up from 17% to 36%.
2nd inns 19.2: Haris Rauf to Tilak Varma, six by Tilak Varma. India up from 69% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan146/10 India150/5

Innings 1

Pakistan

146/1019.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sahibzada Farhancaught · Tilak Varma · Varun Chakravarthy 5 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Tilak Varma · b Varun Chakravarthy	57	38	5	3	150.00
Fakhar Zamancaught · Kuldeep Yadav · Varun Chakravarthy 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Kuldeep Yadav · b Varun Chakravarthy	46	35	2	2	131.43
Saim Ayubcaught · Jasprit Bumrah · Kuldeep Yadav 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jasprit Bumrah · b Kuldeep Yadav	14	11	2	0	127.27
Mohammad Hariscaught · Rinku Singh · Axar Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rinku Singh · b Axar Patel	0	2	0	0	0.00
Salman Ali Aghacaught · Sanju Samson · Kuldeep Yadav0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shivam Dube0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	0	7.67	0
Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	25	2	7.89	0
Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	0
Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	0
Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	4	7.50	4
Tilak Varma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	7	11/0
3	8	19/0
4	13	32/0
5	5	37/0
6	8	45/0
7	11	56/0
8	8	64/0
9	13	77/0
10	10	87/1
11	11	98/1
12	9	107/1
13	6	113/2
14	5	118/3
15	10	128/4
16	5	133/5
17	1	134/8
18	7	141/9
19	5	146/9
20	0	146/10

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