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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
5 Oct 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 79%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratika Rawalbowled · Sadia Iqbal 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sadia Iqbal | 31 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 83.78 |
 Smriti Mandhanalbw · Fatima Sana4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Fatima Sana | 23 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 71.88 |
| Harleen Deolcaught · Nashra Sandhu · Rameen Shamim 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nashra Sandhu · b Rameen Shamim | 46 | 65 | 4 | 1 | 70.77 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurcaught · Sidra Nawaz · Diana Baig2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sidra Nawaz · b Diana Baig | 19 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 55.88 |
 |
India's chances ranged from 69% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 31%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Nashra Sandhu |
| 32 |
| 37 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 86.49 |
 Deepti Sharmacaught · Sidra Nawaz · Diana Baig1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sidra Nawaz · b Diana Baig | 25 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 75.76 |
|---|
| Sneh Ranacaught · Aliya Riaz · Fatima Sana 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aliya Riaz · b Fatima Sana | 20 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 60.61 |
|---|
 Richa Ghoshnot out3 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 35* | 20 | 3 | 2 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Shree Charanicaught · Natalia Pervaiz · Sadia Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Natalia Pervaiz · b Sadia Iqbal | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Kranti Goudcaught · Aliya Riaz · Diana Baig 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aliya Riaz · b Diana Baig | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Renuka Singhcaught · Sidra Nawaz · Diana Baig0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sidra Nawaz · b Diana Baig | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadia Iqbal0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 2 | 4.70 | 1 | 0 |
| Diana Baig1 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 69 | 4 | 6.90 | 2 | 1 |
| Fatima Sana2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 38 | 2 | 3.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Rameen Shamim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 3.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 5.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-48 (Smriti Mandhana, 9.0) · 2-67 (Pratika Rawal, 14.5) · 3-106 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 24.4) · 4-151 (Harleen Deol, 33.1) · 5-159 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 35.0) · 6-201 (Sneh Rana, 44.2) · 7-203 (Deepti Sharma, 45.3) · 8-226 (Shree Charani, 48.2) · 9-247 (Kranti Goud, 49.5) · 10-247 (Renuka Singh, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 20/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 25/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 29/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 33/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 34/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 36/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 45/0 |
| 9 | 3 | 48/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 54/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 54/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 55/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 57/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 63/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 67/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 72/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 75/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 77/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 78/2 |
| 20 | 8 | 86/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 89/2 |
| 22 | 11 | 100/2 |
| 23 | 1 | 101/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 103/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 108/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 111/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 117/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 122/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 130/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 136/3 |
| 31 | 5 | 141/3 |
| 32 | 6 | 147/3 |
| 33 | 4 | 151/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 154/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 159/5 |
| 36 | 1 | 160/5 |
| 37 | 4 | 164/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 166/5 |
| 39 | 1 | 167/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 172/5 |
| 41 | 7 | 179/5 |
| 42 | 3 | 182/5 |
| 43 | 8 | 190/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 197/5 |
| 45 | 6 | 203/6 |
| 46 | 0 | 203/7 |
| 47 | 9 | 212/7 |
| 48 | 13 | 225/7 |
| 49 | 11 | 236/8 |
| 50 | 11 | 247/10 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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