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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
5 Oct 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 79%; India batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muneeba Alirun out · Deepti Sharma · Kranti Goud 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Deepti Sharma | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| Sadaf Shamascaught and bowled · Kranti Goud 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kranti Goud | 6 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Sidra Ameencaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Sneh Rana 9 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Sneh Rana | 81 | 106 | 9 | 1 | 76.42 |
| Aliya Riazcaught · Deepti Sharma · Kranti Goud 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Deepti Sharma · b Kranti Goud | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Natalia Pervaizcaught · RP Yadav · Kranti Goud 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · RP Yadav · b Kranti Goud | 33 | 46 | 4 | 0 | 71.74 |
India's chances ranged from 69% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 31%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Smriti Mandhana · b Deepti Sharma |
| 2 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 13.33 |
| Sidra Nawazcaught and bowled · Sneh Rana 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Sneh Rana | 14 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 63.64 |
|---|
| Rameen Shamimbowled · Deepti Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Deepti Sharma | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Diana Baigrun out · Harmanpreet Kaur · Deepti Sharma 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Harmanpreet Kaur | 9 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 69.23 |
|---|
| Nashra Sandhunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
| Sadia Iqbalcaught · Smriti Mandhana · Deepti Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smriti Mandhana · b Deepti Sharma | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Renuka Singh1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 2.90 | 5 | 0 |
| Kranti Goud3 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sneh Rana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Shree Charani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 45 | 3 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-6 (Muneeba Ali, 4.0) · 2-20 (Sadaf Shamas, 7.3) · 3-26 (Aliya Riaz, 11.1) · 4-95 (Natalia Pervaiz, 27.1) · 5-102 (Fatima Sana, 30.5) · 6-143 (Sidra Nawaz, 38.0) · 7-146 (Rameen Shamim, 38.3) · 8-150 (Sidra Ameen, 39.5) · 9-158 (Diana Baig, 42.2) · 10-159 (Sadia Iqbal, 43.0)
Recorded target: 248 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 13/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 18/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 20/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 21/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 23/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 25/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 26/2 |
| 12 | 0 | 26/3 |
| 13 | 0 | 26/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 28/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 30/3 |
| 16 | 8 | 38/3 |
| 17 | 0 | 38/3 |
| 18 | 9 | 47/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 53/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 57/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 58/3 |
| 22 | 11 | 69/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 75/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 81/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 84/3 |
| 26 | 6 | 90/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 95/3 |
| 28 | 0 | 95/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 99/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 101/4 |
| 31 | 1 | 102/5 |
| 32 | 4 | 106/5 |
| 33 | 8 | 114/5 |
| 34 | 8 | 122/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 124/5 |
| 36 | 6 | 130/5 |
| 37 | 11 | 141/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 143/6 |
| 39 | 3 | 146/7 |
| 40 | 4 | 150/8 |
| 41 | 5 | 155/8 |
| 42 | 3 | 158/8 |
| 43 | 1 | 159/10 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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