**Kingsmead, Durban**
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SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Durban's Super GiantsversusJoburg Super Kings

15 Jan 2024 · T20

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durban's Super Giants won by 37 runs

Durban's Super Giants20.0 overs145/8 Joburg Super Kings20.0 overs108/9 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durban's Super Giants started on 53%; Durban's Super Giants batted first.

Durban's Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Joburg Super Kings is the rest

Durban's Super Giants's chances ranged from 18% to 100% during the match (Joburg Super Kings: 0% to 82%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.4: KA Maharaj to R Herrmann, R Herrmann out. Durban's Super Giants up from 35% to 47%.
2nd inns 8.6: D Pretorius to JL du Plooy, JL du Plooy out. Durban's Super Giants up from 51% to 65%.
2nd inns 12.1: RJ Gleeson to RR Hendricks, RR Hendricks out. Durban's Super Giants up from 66% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.