BermudaversusBrazil

27 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Bermuda won by 146 runs

Bermuda20.0 overs220/4 Brazil16.0 overs74/10 White Hill Field, Sandys Parish ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bermuda more likely to win

91%Bermuda9%Brazil

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bermuda rate stronger than Brazil (1,561 vs 1,255 on our results rating)
Bermuda are playing at home in Bermuda
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Bermuda won 1 and Brazil won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bermuda started on 90%; Bermuda batted first.

Bermuda’s chance of winning (%) · Brazil is the rest

Bermuda's chances ranged from 90% to 100% during the match (Brazil: 0% to 10%).

Biggest swings

0.1: LH Rodrigues to OGL Bascome, six by OGL Bascome. Bermuda up from 90% to 92%.
1.2: LG Moras to DMW Rawlins, six by DMW Rawlins. Bermuda up from 92% to 94%.
8.1: LF Muller to DMW Rawlins, four by DMW Rawlins. Bermuda up from 96% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bermuda220/4 Brazil74/10

Innings 2

Brazil

74/1016.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Brazil batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
LF Mullercaught · L Horan · Chare Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · L Horan · b Chare Smith	7	5	1	0	140.00
LH Rodriguesbowled · L Horan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b L Horan	1	3	0	0	33.33
W Maximolbw · L Horan 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b L Horan	0	1	0	0	0.00
MFI Assuncaocaught · Z Tomlinson · L Horan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Z Tomlinson · b L Horan	3	6	0	0	50.00
Yasar Haroonrun out · Delray Rawlins, Terryn Fray · L Horan 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Delray Rawlins, Terryn Fray	5	6	1	0	83.33
CC Machado

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
L Horan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	4	3.25	2	0
Chare Smith0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	8	0
Derrick Brangman0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	2	4.25	3	0
NIAF Paynter0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	15	2	3.75	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/2
2	12	15/3
3	7	22/4
4	1	23/4
5	3	26/5
6	3	29/5
7	1	30/6
8	12	42/6
9	4	46/7
10	3	49/7
11	6	55/7
12	7	62/7
13	4	66/8
14	3	69/8
15	3	72/8
16	2	74/10

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