New ZealandversusSouth Africa

New Zealand more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than South Africa (1,708 vs 1,585 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 6 and New Zealand won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

New Zealand started on 62%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand's chances ranged from 7% to 87% during the match (South Africa: 13% to 93%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 18.1: JA Duffy to D Brevis, six by D Brevis. South Africa up from 61% to 83%.
2. 2nd inns 19.5: MJ Henry to GF Linde, GF Linde out. New Zealand up from 39% to 62%.
3. 2nd inns 19.6: MJ Henry to S Muthusamy, 0 runs to S Muthusamy. New Zealand up from 62% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.