South AfricaversusBangladesh

10 Jun 2024 · T20

Recorded result

South Africa won by 4 runs

South Africa20.0 overs113/6 Bangladesh20.0 overs109/7 Nassau County International Cricket Stadium, New York ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

57%South Africa43%Bangladesh

Why

In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 8 and Bangladesh won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than South Africa (1,600 vs 1,528 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 55%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 10% to 84% during the match (Bangladesh: 16% to 90%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.5: A Nortje to Nazmul Hossain Shanto, Nazmul Hossain Shanto out. South Africa up from 29% to 44%.
2nd inns 19.3: KA Maharaj to Jaker Ali, Jaker Ali out. South Africa up from 46% to 65%.
2nd inns 19.6: KA Maharaj to Taskin Ahmed, 1 run to Taskin Ahmed. South Africa up from 84% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa113/6 Bangladesh109/7

Innings 1

South Africa

113/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Quinton de Kockbowled · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 1 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib	18	11	1	2	163.64
Reeza Hendrickslbw · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib	0	1	0	0	0.00
Aiden Markrambowled · Taskin Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Taskin Ahmed	4	8	1	0	50.00
Tristan Stubbscaught · Shakib Al Hasan · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shakib Al Hasan · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib	0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	3	4.50	3
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	2	4.75	0
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	0	4.50	1
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	0
Shakib Al Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	6	0	6.00	0
Mahmudullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	17	0	5.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/1
2	7	18/1
3	1	19/2
4	4	23/3
5	1	24/4
6	1	25/4
7	6	31/4
8	6	37/4
9	6	43/4
10	14	57/4
11	4	61/4
12	3	64/4
13	8	72/4
14	8	80/4
15	4	84/4
16	6	90/4
17	10	100/4
18	5	105/5
19	4	109/6
20	4	113/6

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