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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
2 Jun 2024 · T20
Providence Stadium, Guyana · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Papua New Guinea started on 34%; Papua New Guinea batted first.
Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (West Indies: 38% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Uracaught · Nicolas Pooran · Romario Shepherd 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicolas Pooran · b Romario Shepherd | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
 Assad Valacaught · Roston Chase · Alzarri Joseph2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Roston Chase · b Alzarri Joseph | 21 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 95.45 |
| Lega Siakabowled · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Akeal Hosein | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Sese Baubowled · Alzarri Joseph 6 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Alzarri Joseph | 50 | 43 | 6 | 1 | 116.28 |
| Hiri Hiricaught · Rovman Powell · Gudakesh Motie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rovman Powell |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| CJA Aminicaught · Nicolas Pooran · Andre Russell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicolas Pooran · b Andre Russell | 12 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Kiplin Doriganot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 27* | 18 | 3 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Chad Soperbowled · Andre Russell 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Andre Russell | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 111.11 |
|---|
| Alei Naorun out · Alzarri Joseph · Alzarri Joseph 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Alzarri Joseph | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Kabua Moreanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 7.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Andre Russell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 8.50 | 1 | 1 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Tony Ura, 1.5) · 2-7 (Lega Siaka, 2.1) · 3-34 (Assad Vala, 6.0) · 4-50 (Hiri Hiri, 8.5) · 5-94 (CJA Amini, 15.0) · 6-98 (Sese Bau, 16.3) · 7-122 (Chad Soper, 19.0) · 8-130 (Alei Nao, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 10/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 15/2 |
| 5 | 11 | 26/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 34/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 39/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 47/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 52/4 |
| 10 | 5 | 57/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 62/4 |
| 12 | 5 | 67/4 |
| 13 | 14 | 81/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 90/4 |
| 15 | 4 | 94/5 |
| 16 | 2 | 96/5 |
| 17 | 3 | 99/6 |
| 18 | 13 | 112/6 |
| 19 | 10 | 122/7 |
| 20 | 14 | 136/8 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Assad Vala: LondonWriting · CC0
Andre Russell: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
