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Photo: No machine-readable author provided. FrWaters assumed (based on copyright claims).
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
2 Jun 2024 · T20
Providence Stadium, Guyana · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Papua New Guinea started on 34%; Papua New Guinea batted first.
Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (West Indies: 38% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Lega Siaka · Assad Vala 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lega Siaka · b Assad Vala | 34 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 117.24 |
| Johnson Charleslbw · Alei Nao 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Alei Nao | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Poorancaught · Tony Ura · John Kariko 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Tony Ura · b John Kariko | 27 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 100.00 |
 Roston Chasenot out4 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 42* | 27 | 4 | 2 | 155.56 |
| Rovman Powellcaught · Kiplin Doriga · Chad Soper 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kiplin Doriga · b Chad Soper | 15 |
| 14 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 107.14 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordcaught · Kiplin Doriga · Assad Vala 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kiplin Doriga · b Assad Vala | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
 Andre Russellnot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 9 | 0 | 1 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kabua Morea0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Alei Nao1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Soper0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Sese Bau0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 18.00 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kariko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Assad Vala1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| CJA Amini0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Johnson Charles, 1.1) · 2-61 (Nicolas Pooran, 8.1) · 3-63 (Brandon King, 9.5) · 4-85 (Rovman Powell, 14.0) · 5-97 (Sherfane Rutherford, 16.0)
Recorded target: 137 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 10 | 18/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 27/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 34/1 |
| 6 | 18 | 52/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 57/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 61/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 63/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 63/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 68/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 75/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 85/4 |
| 15 | 9 | 94/4 |
| 16 | 3 | 97/5 |
| 17 | 9 | 106/5 |
| 18 | 18 | 124/5 |
| 19 | 13 | 137/5 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Assad Vala: LondonWriting · CC0
Andre Russell: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
