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Photo: Timothy Barton (timtranslates.com)
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
19 Jun 2024 · T20
Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 67%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 85% during the match (England: 15% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingretired hurt · Sam Curran 3 fours · 1 sixes | retired hurt | 23* | 13 | 3 | 1 | 176.92 |
| Johnson Charlescaught · Harry Brook · Moeen Ali 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Moeen Ali | 38 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 111.76 |
| Nicolas Poorancaught · Jos Buttler · Jofra Archer 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Jofra Archer | 36 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 112.50 |
| Rovman Powellcaught · Mark Wood · Liam Livingstone 0 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Mark Wood · b Liam Livingstone | 36 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 211.76 |
 Andre Russellcaught · Philip Salt · Adil Rashid0 fours · 0 sixes | caught |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordnot out 1 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 28* | 15 | 1 | 2 | 186.67 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reece Topley0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 8.67 | 4 | 0 |
 Mark Wood0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 12.00 | 4 | 0 |
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Moeen Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam Livingstone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 20.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-94 (Johnson Charles, 11.1) · 2-137 (Rovman Powell, 15.0) · 3-141 (Nicolas Pooran, 16.0) · 4-143 (Andre Russell, 16.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 25/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 36/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 44/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 54/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 63/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 72/0 |
| 9 | 3 | 75/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 82/0 |
| 11 | 12 | 94/0 |
| 12 | 8 | 102/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 106/1 |
| 14 | 11 | 117/1 |
| 15 | 20 | 137/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 141/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 143/4 |
| 18 | 19 | 162/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 168/4 |
| 20 | 12 | 180/4 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andre Russell: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jonny Bairstow: Mcadge · CC BY-SA 4.0
Moeen Ali: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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