PortugalversusNorway

Portugal more likely to win

Why

• Portugal are playing at home in Portugal
• In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Portugal won 2 and Norway won 1
• On results in T20 internationals so far, Norway rate stronger than Portugal (1,557 vs 1,547 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Portugal started on 57%; Portugal batted first.

Portugal's chances ranged from 44% to 99% during the match (Norway: 1% to 56%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 17.5: J Martins to Faisal Raza, six by Faisal Raza. Norway up from 21% to 34%.
2. 2nd inns 18.1: R Hashu to Faisal Raza, Faisal Raza out. Portugal up from 60% to 74%.
3. 2nd inns 18.3: R Hashu to Ibrahim Rahimi, six by Ibrahim Rahimi. Norway up from 17% to 35%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.