ZimbabweversusScotland

22 Jan 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Scotland won by 5 wickets

Zimbabwe18.4 overs101/10 Scotland13.4 overs105/5 Mulpani Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Scotland more likely to win

37%Zimbabwe63%Scotland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Scotland rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,625 vs 1,502 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Zimbabwe won 1 and Scotland won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 37%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Scotland is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 44% during the match (Scotland: 56% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.5: O Bell to CS Mugeri-Tiripano, CS Mugeri-Tiripano out. Scotland up from 57% to 65%.
3.5: R Slater to B Biza, B Biza out. Scotland up from 60% to 68%.
6.5: K Fraser to K Ndlovu, K Ndlovu out. Scotland up from 65% to 72%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe101/10 Scotland105/5

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

101/1018.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Chipo Mugericaught · Megan McColl · Olivia Bell 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Megan McColl · b Olivia Bell	8	9	2	0	88.89
B Bizabowled · Rachel Slater 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Rachel Slater	8	11	1	0	72.73
Modester Mupachikwanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes	not out	30*	40	1	0	75.00
Kelis Ndhlovustumped · Sarah Bryce · Katherine Fraser 2 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Sarah Bryce · b Katherine Fraser	11	12	2	0	91.67
Loren Tshumabowled · Rachel Slater 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Rachel Slater	0	2	0	0	0.00
Chiedza Dhururu

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kathryn Bryce0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	2	4.75	0
Olivia Bell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	1	7.00	1
Rachel Slater0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	15	2	5.00	1
Katherine Fraser0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	0
Abtaha Maqsood0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	2	4.67	2
Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.4	9	1	5.40	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	5	13/1
3	7	20/1
4	5	25/2
5	9	34/2
6	3	37/2
7	2	39/3
8	7	46/4
9	8	54/4
10	3	57/4
11	4	61/4
12	4	65/4
13	8	73/4
14	5	78/4
15	5	83/6
16	4	87/7
17	7	94/7
18	2	96/9
19	5	101/10

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