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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
13 Aug 2026 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 79%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YS Samracaught · Jack Jarvis · Safyaan Sharif 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jack Jarvis · b Safyaan Sharif | 16 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 69.57 |
| Aaron Johnsoncaught · Richie Berrington · Mark Watt 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richie Berrington · b Mark Watt | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Pargat Singhcaught · Finlay McCreath · Jack Jarvis 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Finlay McCreath · b Jack Jarvis | 42 | 68 | 6 | 0 | 61.76 |
| Harsh Thakercaught · Oliver Davidson · LJ Robertson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Oliver Davidson · b LJ Robertson | 16 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 64.00 |
| AS Chimacaught · Michael English · Jack Jarvis 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Michael English · b Jack Jarvis | 24 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 150.00 |
Scotland's chances ranged from 60% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 40%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Shreyas Movvacaught and bowled · LJ Robertson 3 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught and bowled · b LJ Robertson |
| 27 |
| 28 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 96.43 |
 Saad Bin Zafarcaught · Oliver Davidson · LJ Robertson2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Oliver Davidson · b LJ Robertson | 31 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 110.71 |
|---|
| Shivam Sharma (3)caught · Oliver Davidson · LJ Robertson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Oliver Davidson · b LJ Robertson | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Ansh Patelnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 140.00 |
|---|
| Zahid Shirzadbowled · LJ Robertson 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b LJ Robertson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Kaleem Sanabowled · LJ Robertson 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b LJ Robertson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 5.29 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandon McMullen1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Safyaan Sharif0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Oliver Davidson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jarvis0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 5.67 | 4 | 0 |
| LJ Robertson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 6 | 5.20 | 1 | 0 |
1-11 (Aaron Johnson, 2.4) · 2-45 (YS Samra, 11.0) · 3-80 (Pargat Singh, 19.3) · 4-106 (Harsh Thaker, 22.4) · 5-110 (AS Chima, 23.5) · 6-155 (Saad Bin Zafar, 30.5) · 7-159 (Shivam Sharma (3), 32.3) · 8-177 (Shreyas Movva, 34.3) · 9-177 (Zahid Shirzad, 34.4) · 10-177 (Kaleem Sana, 35.0)
Recorded target: 348 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 22/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 24/1 |
| 8 | 9 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 35/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 43/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 45/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 48/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 52/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 59/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 61/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 64/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 73/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 76/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 78/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 82/3 |
| 21 | 7 | 89/3 |
| 22 | 17 | 106/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 108/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 111/5 |
| 25 | 7 | 118/5 |
| 26 | 5 | 123/5 |
| 27 | 5 | 128/5 |
| 28 | 12 | 140/5 |
| 29 | 7 | 147/5 |
| 30 | 4 | 151/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 155/6 |
| 32 | 3 | 158/6 |
| 33 | 4 | 162/7 |
| 34 | 10 | 172/7 |
| 35 | 5 | 177/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
