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Photo: Mat Fascione
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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West Indies Women tour of England · 2025 · Women
4 Jun 2025 · ODI
Grace Road, Leicester · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 85%; England batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Realeanna Grimmondcaught · Kate Cross · Linsey Smith 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Kate Cross · b Linsey Smith | 53 | 72 | 4 | 2 | 73.61 |
| Zaida Jamescaught · Amy Jones · Lauren Bell 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Jones · b Lauren Bell | 19 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 95.00 |
 Shemaine Campbellecaught · Lauren Bell · Linsey Smith0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lauren Bell · b Linsey Smith | 6 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 26.09 |
 Stafanie Taylorcaught · Kate Cross · Alice Capsey1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kate Cross · b Alice Capsey | 20 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 51.28 |
England's chances ranged from 85% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 15%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| stumped · Amy Jones · b Alice Capsey |
| 8 |
| 25 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 32.00 |
| Jannillea Glasgowcaught · Tammy Beaumont · Alice Davidson-Richards 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tammy Beaumont · b Alice Davidson-Richards | 44 | 24 | 9 | 0 | 183.33 |
|---|
| Aaliyah Alleynecaught · Amy Jones · Kate Cross 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Jones · b Kate Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Jahzara Claxtonbowled · Lauren Filer 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lauren Filer | 18 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Cherry-Ann Frasercaught · Lauren Bell · Alice Capsey 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lauren Bell · b Alice Capsey | 24 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
 Afy Fletcherbowled · Lauren Filer2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lauren Filer | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 266.67 |
|---|
 Karishma Ramharacknot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 15* | 13 | 3 | 0 | 115.38 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lauren Bell1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Kate Cross0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 4.13 | 0 | 0 |
 Lauren Filer1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 4.89 | 1 | 0 |
| Linsey Smith1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 27 | 2 | 2.70 | 0 | 0 |
 Alice Capsey1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 4.73 | 2 | 0 |
| Alice Davidson-Richards0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 11.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-37 (Zaida James, 6.5) · 2-61 (Shemaine Campbelle, 14.4) · 3-90 (Realeanna Grimmond, 22.4) · 4-105 (Stafanie Taylor, 27.5) · 5-154 (Jannillea Glasgow, 33.0) · 6-154 (Shabika Gajnabi, 33.5) · 7-154 (Aaliyah Alleyne, 34.1) · 8-186 (Jahzara Claxton, 41.2) · 9-194 (Afy Fletcher, 41.5) · 10-223 (Cherry-Ann Fraser, 45.4)
Recorded target: 367 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 13 | 33/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 35/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 38/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 41/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 41/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 50/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 58/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 59/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 61/1 |
| 14 | 0 | 61/1 |
| 15 | 0 | 61/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 65/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 67/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 69/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 73/2 |
| 20 | 9 | 82/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 86/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 89/2 |
| 23 | 1 | 90/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 93/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 96/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 98/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 101/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 105/4 |
| 29 | 13 | 118/4 |
| 30 | 5 | 123/4 |
| 31 | 13 | 136/4 |
| 32 | 11 | 147/4 |
| 33 | 7 | 154/5 |
| 34 | 0 | 154/6 |
| 35 | 2 | 156/7 |
| 36 | 7 | 163/7 |
| 37 | 5 | 168/7 |
| 38 | 3 | 171/7 |
| 39 | 6 | 177/7 |
| 40 | 5 | 182/7 |
| 41 | 4 | 186/7 |
| 42 | 8 | 194/9 |
| 43 | 5 | 199/9 |
| 44 | 13 | 212/9 |
| 45 | 5 | 217/9 |
| 46 | 6 | 223/10 |
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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