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Photo: Krish Dulal
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Canada tour of Nepal · 2023/24 · Men
8 Feb 2024 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 72%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Johnsonlbw · Sompal Kami 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Sompal Kami | 20 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 133.33 |
| Navneet Dhaliwalcaught · Aarif Sheikh · R Dhakal 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aarif Sheikh · b R Dhakal | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Pargat Singhcaught · Lalit Rajbanshi · Rohit Kumar 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lalit Rajbanshi · b Rohit Kumar | 50 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 86.21 |
| Nicholas Kirtonbowled · Pawan Sarraf 7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Pawan Sarraf | 68 | 99 | 7 | 0 | 68.69 |
| Harsh Thakerbowled · Kushal Malla 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kushal Malla | 32 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 74.42 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 3% to 85% during the match (Canada: 15% to 97%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Sompal Kami · b Rohit Kumar |
| 1 |
| 12 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 8.33 |
 Saad Bin Zafarlbw · Lalit Rajbanshi0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 41.18 |
|---|
| Uday Bhagwanbowled · Rohit Kumar 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rohit Kumar | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 46.15 |
|---|
| Dillon Heyligerlbw · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Shahid Ahmadzainot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 16 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| IS Sohibowled · Rohit Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rohit Kumar | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 14 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 5.13 | 0 | 0 |
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 5.71 | 2 | 1 |
| R Dhakal0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 4.86 | 2 | 0 |
| Pawan Sarraf1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 4.44 | 1 | 0 |
| Surya Tamang0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 6.40 | 6 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.5 | 2 | 22 | 4 | 2.49 | 2 | 0 |
 Kushal Malla0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-19 (Navneet Dhaliwal, 2.5) · 2-35 (Aaron Johnson, 6.0) · 3-114 (Pargat Singh, 19.4) · 4-174 (Harsh Thaker, 33.0) · 5-189 (Shreyas Movva, 37.3) · 6-195 (Nicholas Kirton, 40.4) · 7-207 (Uday Bhagwan, 44.0) · 8-207 (Saad Bin Zafar, 44.2) · 9-212 (Dillon Heyliger, 46.5) · 10-217 (IS Sohi, 47.5)
Recorded target: 225 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 33/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 35/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 37/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 43/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 48/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 54/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 62/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 67/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 73/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 78/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 80/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 83/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 92/2 |
| 18 | 9 | 101/2 |
| 19 | 12 | 113/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 114/3 |
| 21 | 8 | 122/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 128/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 131/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 133/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 135/3 |
| 26 | 10 | 145/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 150/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 155/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 159/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 161/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 165/3 |
| 32 | 7 | 172/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 174/4 |
| 34 | 10 | 184/4 |
| 35 | 1 | 185/4 |
| 36 | 1 | 186/4 |
| 37 | 3 | 189/4 |
| 38 | 0 | 189/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 192/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 195/5 |
| 41 | 0 | 195/6 |
| 42 | 3 | 198/6 |
| 43 | 6 | 204/6 |
| 44 | 3 | 207/7 |
| 45 | 1 | 208/8 |
| 46 | 0 | 208/8 |
| 47 | 4 | 212/9 |
| 48 | 5 | 217/10 |
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
