**Newlands, Cape Town**
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SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Durban's Super GiantsversusMI Cape Town

23 Jan 2024 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durban's Super Giants won by 36 runs

Durban's Super Giants20.0 overs157/6 MI Cape Town20.0 overs121/9 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durban's Super Giants started on 49%; Durban's Super Giants batted first.

Durban's Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · MI Cape Town is the rest

Durban's Super Giants's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (MI Cape Town: 0% to 74%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.6: KA Maharaj to HE van der Dussen, HE van der Dussen out. Durban's Super Giants up from 46% to 59%.
2nd inns 6.6: Noor Ahmad to C Esterhuizen, C Esterhuizen out. Durban's Super Giants up from 59% to 74%.
2nd inns 13.3: MP Stoinis to SM Curran, SM Curran out. Durban's Super Giants up from 58% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Durban's Super Giants157/6 MI Cape Town121/9

Innings 1