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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
7 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 28%; Canada batted first.
Canada's chances ranged from 17% to 99% during the match (Ireland: 1% to 83%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Johnsoncaught · Curtis Campher · Craig Young 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Curtis Campher · b Craig Young | 14 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 107.69 |
| Navneet Dhaliwalcaught · George Dockrell · Mark Adair 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Dockrell · b Mark Adair | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Pargat Singhcaught · Joshua Little · Craig Young 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joshua Little · b Craig Young | 18 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 128.57 |
| Dilpreet Bajwacaught and bowled · Gareth Delany 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Gareth Delany | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
| Nicholas Kirtoncaught · Andrew Balbirnie · Barry McCarthy 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Andrew Balbirnie · b Barry McCarthy | 49 | 35 | 3 | 2 |
| 140.00 |
| Shreyas Movvarun out · Lorcan Tucker, Barry McCarthy · Mark Adair 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Lorcan Tucker, Barry McCarthy | 37 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 102.78 |
|---|
| Dillon Heyligercaught · Joshua Little · Barry McCarthy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joshua Little · b Barry McCarthy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Adair0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Joshua Little0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 9.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Craig Young0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Barry McCarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Gareth Delany0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Campher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-12 (Navneet Dhaliwal, 2.2) · 2-28 (Aaron Johnson, 5.0) · 3-42 (Pargat Singh, 6.5) · 4-53 (Dilpreet Bajwa, 8.1) · 5-128 (Nicholas Kirton, 18.4) · 6-128 (Dillon Heyliger, 19.0) · 7-137 (Shreyas Movva, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 14 | 27/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 28/2 |
| 6 | 9 | 37/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 42/3 |
| 8 | 11 | 53/3 |
| 9 | 4 | 57/4 |
| 10 | 6 | 63/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 69/4 |
| 12 | 5 | 74/4 |
| 13 | 8 | 82/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 90/4 |
| 15 | 2 | 92/4 |
| 16 | 18 | 110/4 |
| 17 | 9 | 119/4 |
| 18 | 7 | 126/4 |
| 19 | 2 | 128/6 |
| 20 | 9 | 137/7 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
