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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
7 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 28%; Canada batted first.
Canada's chances ranged from 17% to 99% during the match (Ireland: 1% to 83%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Andrew Balbirniecaught and bowled · Junaid Siddiqui1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Junaid Siddiqui | 17 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 89.47 |
 Paul Stirlingcaught · Shreyas Movva · Jeremy Gordon1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Jeremy Gordon | 9 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 52.94 |
| Lorcan Tuckerrun out · Nicholas Kirton, Saad Bin Zafar · Saad Bin Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nicholas Kirton, Saad Bin Zafar | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
 Harry Tectorbowled · Saad Bin Zafar0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Saad Bin Zafar |
| 7 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 140.00 |
| Curtis Camphercaught · Aaron Johnson · Dillon Heyliger 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaron Johnson · b Dillon Heyliger | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
 George Dockrellnot out2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 30* | 23 | 2 | 1 | 130.43 |
|---|
| Gareth Delanycaught · Shreyas Movva · Dillon Heyliger 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Dillon Heyliger | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Mark Adaircaught and bowled · Jeremy Gordon 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jeremy Gordon | 34 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 141.67 |
|---|
| Barry McCarthynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 9.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Jeremy Gordon0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Junaid Siddiqui0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-26 (Paul Stirling, 5.4) · 2-32 (Andrew Balbirnie, 6.2) · 3-41 (Harry Tector, 7.4) · 4-50 (Lorcan Tucker, 10.0) · 5-53 (Curtis Campher, 10.5) · 6-59 (Gareth Delany, 12.3) · 7-121 (Mark Adair, 19.2)
Recorded target: 138 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 36/2 |
| 8 | 7 | 43/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 46/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 50/4 |
| 11 | 3 | 53/5 |
| 12 | 4 | 57/5 |
| 13 | 5 | 62/6 |
| 14 | 7 | 69/6 |
| 15 | 5 | 74/6 |
| 16 | 14 | 88/6 |
| 17 | 14 | 102/6 |
| 18 | 8 | 110/6 |
| 19 | 11 | 121/6 |
| 20 | 4 | 125/7 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
