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Women's T20 Pentangular Series (in Japan) · 2025 · Women
8 Jun 2025 · T20
Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
China more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Philippines started on 16%; Philippines batted first.
Philippines's chances ranged from 0% to 26% during the match (China: 74% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JKD Andreanocaught · Ma Ruike · Mengting Liu 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ma Ruike · b Mengting Liu | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| ABY Smithrun out · Mengting Liu, Xu Qian · Xu Qian 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mengting Liu, Xu Qian | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| AR Valdezcaught · Wang Huiying · Gong Yuting 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wang Huiying · b Gong Yuting | 11 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 45.83 |
| KK Donovanbowled · Wang Huiying 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Wang Huiying | 34 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 77.27 |
| Karri Gullem Keennot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 16* | 25 | 1 | 0 | 64.00 |
| R Castillo |
| run out · Gong Yuting |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Kyte Gullem Keencaught · Jiaping Li · Mengting Liu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jiaping Li · b Mengting Liu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Angela Busalbw · Mengting Liu 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mengting Liu | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| SF Sirahnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 8 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ma Ruike0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Xu Qian0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mengting Liu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 3.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Wang Huiying0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Gong Yuting0 maidens · 1 wides · 3 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 1 | 3 |
| Cai Yuzhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-10 (ABY Smith, 3.3) · 2-13 (JKD Andreano, 4.4) · 3-45 (AR Valdez, 11.1) · 4-79 (KK Donovan, 18.2) · 5-79 (R Castillo, 18.4) · 6-81 (Kyte Gullem Keen, 19.2) · 7-82 (Angela Busa, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 17/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 18/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 22/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 28/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 35/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 37/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 45/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 48/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 56/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 60/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 67/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 71/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 74/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 78/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 80/5 |
| 20 | 4 | 84/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.