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Photo: Barry Dogger
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
India tour of England · 2026 · Men
9 Jul 2026 · T20
County Ground, Bristol · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 35%; India batted first.
India's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (England: 53% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltnot out9 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 59* | 42 | 9 | 1 | 140.48 |
 Jos Buttlercaught · Ishan Kishan · Arshdeep Singh0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ishan Kishan · b Arshdeep Singh | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
 Harry Brooknot out8 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 79* | 35 | 8 | 4 | 225.71 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 5 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
| Bowler | Overs | M | R |
|---|
| W |
|---|
| Runs / 6 balls |
|---|
| WD |
|---|
| NB |
|---|
 Arshdeep Singh1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 10.70 | 2 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prasidh Krishna0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 8.67 | 0 | 1 |
| Prince Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 9.33 | 1 | 1 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Washington Sundar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 19.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Shivam Dube0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-13 (Jos Buttler, 2.3)
Recorded target: 159 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 15 | 22/1 |
| 4 | 15 | 37/1 |
| 5 | 15 | 52/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 62/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 68/1 |
| 8 | 19 | 87/1 |
| 9 | 18 | 105/1 |
| 10 | 15 | 120/1 |
| 11 | 11 | 131/1 |
| 12 | 9 | 140/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 144/1 |
| 14 | 15 | 159/1 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rehan Ahmed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Ishan Kishan: Tata Ipl 2022 · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Tilak Varma: Buchi Babu Sana · CC BY 4.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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