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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka tour of Zimbabwe · 2025 · Men
29 Aug 2025 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 67%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettcaught · Sadeera Samarawickrama · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sadeera Samarawickrama · b Asitha Fernando | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ben Currancaught · Dushmantha Chameera · Asitha Fernando 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dushmantha Chameera · b Asitha Fernando | 70 | 90 | 8 | 0 | 77.78 |
 Brendan Taylorcaught · Kamindu Mendis · Asitha Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Asitha Fernando | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Sean Williamscaught · Asitha Fernando · Kamindu Mendis7 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Asitha Fernando · b Kamindu Mendis | 57 | 54 | 7 | 2 | 105.56 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 22% to 96% during the match (Zimbabwe: 4% to 79%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Sikandar Razabowled · Dilshan Madushanka8 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| bowled · b Dilshan Madushanka |
| 92 |
| 87 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 105.75 |
| Wesley Madheverecaught · Janith Liyanage · Dilshan Madushanka 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Janith Liyanage · b Dilshan Madushanka | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Tony Munyonganot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 43* | 52 | 1 | 0 | 82.69 |
|---|
| Brad Evanscaught · Asitha Fernando · Dilshan Madushanka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Asitha Fernando · b Dilshan Madushanka | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Richard Ngaravabowled · Dilshan Madushanka 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dilshan Madushanka | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Blessing Muzarabaninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 16 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 3 | 5.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 62 | 4 | 6.20 | 6 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 4.70 | 1 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 11.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Janith Liyanage0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 2 | 0 |
1-0 (Brian Bennett, 0.1) · 2-0 (Brendan Taylor, 0.4) · 3-118 (Sean Williams, 22.2) · 4-140 (Ben Curran, 25.5) · 5-161 (Wesley Madhevere, 30.0) · 6-289 (Sikandar Raza, 49.1) · 7-289 (Brad Evans, 49.2) · 8-289 (Richard Ngarava, 49.3)
Recorded target: 299 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/2 |
| 3 | 2 | 8/2 |
| 4 | 6 | 14/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 17/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 18/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 21/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 33/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 36/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 41/2 |
| 12 | 10 | 51/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 59/2 |
| 14 | 9 | 68/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 71/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 76/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 78/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 85/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 92/2 |
| 20 | 8 | 100/2 |
| 21 | 9 | 109/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 113/2 |
| 23 | 11 | 124/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 125/3 |
| 25 | 13 | 138/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 140/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 146/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 149/4 |
| 29 | 7 | 156/4 |
| 30 | 5 | 161/5 |
| 31 | 5 | 166/5 |
| 32 | 3 | 169/5 |
| 33 | 2 | 171/5 |
| 34 | 9 | 180/5 |
| 35 | 7 | 187/5 |
| 36 | 5 | 192/5 |
| 37 | 5 | 197/5 |
| 38 | 4 | 201/5 |
| 39 | 5 | 206/5 |
| 40 | 12 | 218/5 |
| 41 | 7 | 225/5 |
| 42 | 11 | 236/5 |
| 43 | 4 | 240/5 |
| 44 | 11 | 251/5 |
| 45 | 6 | 257/5 |
| 46 | 9 | 266/5 |
| 47 | 9 | 275/5 |
| 48 | 7 | 282/5 |
| 49 | 7 | 289/5 |
| 50 | 2 | 291/8 |
Brendan Taylor: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Williams: Larry D. Moore · CC BY 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
