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South Africa Women tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Women
4 Apr 2026 · ODI
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 42%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Izzy Sharp · Kayley Knight9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Izzy Sharp · b Kayley Knight | 69 | 68 | 9 | 0 | 101.47 |
| Tazmin Britslbw · Rosemary Mair 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Rosemary Mair | 25 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 60.98 |
| Annerie Dercksencaught · Nensi Patel · Rosemary Mair 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nensi Patel · b Rosemary Mair | 47 | 52 | 5 | 1 | 90.38 |
| Suné Luuscaught · Amelia Kerr · Nensi Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amelia Kerr · b Nensi Patel | 21 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 67.74 |
| Anne Boschcaught · Izzy Gaze · Rosemary Mair 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 9% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 91%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 37.50 |
| Sinalo Jaftacaught · Izzy Gaze · Amelia Kerr 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Izzy Gaze · b Amelia Kerr | 12 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Nadine de Klerkcaught · Georgia Plimmer · Jess Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Georgia Plimmer · b Jess Kerr | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 81.82 |
|---|
 Chloe Tryoncaught · Izzy Gaze · Rosemary Mair1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Izzy Gaze · b Rosemary Mair | 29 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 111.54 |
|---|
| Tumi Sekhukhunenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
 Nonkululeko Mlabacaught and bowled · Amelia Kerr0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Amelia Kerr | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Ayanda Hlubicaught · Nensi Patel · Rosemary Mair 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nensi Patel · b Rosemary Mair | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Kerr0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 0 | 50 | 5 | 5.45 | 2 | 0 |
| Kayley Knight0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 6.86 | 1 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 4.11 | 1 | 0 |
| Nensi Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 4.44 | 0 | 0 |
 Suzie Bates0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-68 (Tazmin Brits, 13.0) · 2-145 (Laura Wolvaardt, 26.0) · 3-148 (Annerie Dercksen, 27.1) · 4-154 (Anne Bosch, 29.4) · 5-178 (Sinalo Jafta, 35.3) · 6-192 (Suné Luus, 37.4) · 7-204 (Nadine de Klerk, 40.1) · 8-232 (Chloe Tryon, 44.2) · 9-237 (Nonkululeko Mlaba, 45.3) · 10-240 (Ayanda Hlubi, 46.1)
Recorded target: 307 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 35/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 37/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 39/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 46/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 48/0 |
| 11 | 7 | 55/0 |
| 12 | 10 | 65/0 |
| 13 | 3 | 68/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 71/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 77/1 |
| 16 | 7 | 84/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 88/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 92/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 95/1 |
| 20 | 6 | 101/1 |
| 21 | 8 | 109/1 |
| 22 | 6 | 115/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 119/1 |
| 24 | 10 | 129/1 |
| 25 | 5 | 134/1 |
| 26 | 11 | 145/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 148/2 |
| 28 | 3 | 151/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 153/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 154/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 157/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 158/4 |
| 33 | 7 | 165/4 |
| 34 | 1 | 166/4 |
| 35 | 8 | 174/4 |
| 36 | 10 | 184/5 |
| 37 | 6 | 190/5 |
| 38 | 3 | 193/6 |
| 39 | 5 | 198/6 |
| 40 | 6 | 204/6 |
| 41 | 4 | 208/7 |
| 42 | 16 | 224/7 |
| 43 | 5 | 229/7 |
| 44 | 1 | 230/7 |
| 45 | 5 | 235/8 |
| 46 | 5 | 240/9 |
| 47 | 0 | 240/10 |
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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