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Kwibuka Women's Twenty20 Tournament · 2026 · Women
10 Jun 2026 · T20
Nigeria more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nigeria started on 65%; Nigeria batted first.
Nigeria's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Malawi: 0% to 70%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euless Chiralilerun out · A Adekunle, H Mbam · H Mbam 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · A Adekunle, H Mbam | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 41.67 |
| S Chinawarun out · C Chukwuonye · L Udeh 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · C Chukwuonye | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Praise Maziyacaught · S Etim · A Adekunle 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Etim · b A Adekunle | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| LL Dimbacaught · F Eseigbe · H Mbam 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · F Eseigbe · b H Mbam | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
| Sugeni Kananjicaught · S Sunday · F Eseigbe 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Sunday · b F Eseigbe | 16 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 88.89 |
| caught · H Mbam · b A Adekunle |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 25.00 |
| C Bwanalicaught · E Sandy · A Adekunle 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · E Sandy · b A Adekunle | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| V Phirilbw · H Mbam 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b H Mbam | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Sphiwe Frankbowled · O Omonkhobio 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b O Omonkhobio | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| L Malinonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| B Kasinjabowled · F Eseigbe 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b F Eseigbe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L Udeh0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 1 | 1 |
| A Adekunle0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 3.75 | 2 | 0 |
| H Mbam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| O Omonkhobio0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 1 |
| F Eseigbe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (S Chinawa, 2.3) · 2-12 (Praise Maziya, 3.2) · 3-19 (Euless Chiralile, 4.3) · 4-21 (LL Dimba, 4.5) · 5-30 (Angela Lumbe, 7.1) · 6-33 (C Bwanali, 7.4) · 7-36 (V Phiri, 8.4) · 8-41 (Sphiwe Frank, 9.2) · 9-46 (Sugeni Kananji, 10.1) · 10-46 (B Kasinja, 10.3)
Recorded target: 99 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 18/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 21/4 |
| 6 | 4 | 25/4 |
| 7 | 5 | 30/4 |
| 8 | 3 | 33/6 |
| 9 | 8 | 41/7 |
| 10 | 5 | 46/8 |
| 11 | 0 | 46/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.