Brisbane HeatversusSydney Thunder

1 Nov 2026 · T20

Drummoyne Oval, Sydney · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Thunder won by 6 wickets

Brisbane Heat20.0 overs178/5 Sydney Thunder16.4 overs180/4 Drummoyne Oval, Sydney ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Brisbane Heat started on 40%; Brisbane Heat batted first.

Brisbane Heat’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Thunder is the rest

Brisbane Heat's chances ranged from 0% to 76% during the match (Sydney Thunder: 24% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.5: O Prendergast to G Voll, G Voll out. Brisbane Heat up from 62% to 73%.
2nd inns 5.6: L Bassingthwaighte to P Litchfield, P Litchfield out. Brisbane Heat up from 55% to 68%.
2nd inns 12.3: LK Hamilton to A Learoyd, A Learoyd out. Brisbane Heat up from 23% to 33%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.