Hong KongversusKuwait

6 May 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Hong Kong won by 25 runs

Hong Kong20.0 overs135/6 Kuwait20.0 overs110/8 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

70%Hong Kong30%Kuwait

Why

In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Hong Kong won 5 and Kuwait won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Kuwait (1,457 vs 1,412 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 68%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · Kuwait is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 58% to 100% during the match (Kuwait: 0% to 42%).

Biggest swings

5.6: Amna Tariq to M Hill, M Hill out. Kuwait up from 26% to 32%.
2nd inns 0.3: Iqra Sahar to Zeefa Jilani, Zeefa Jilani out. Hong Kong up from 83% to 89%.
2nd inns 10.3: M Kaur to Maryam Omar, four by Maryam Omar. Kuwait up from 35% to 42%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong135/6 Kuwait110/8

Innings 2

Kuwait

110/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Kuwait batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Priyada Muralirun out · Hiu Ying Cheung · M Wai Siu 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Hiu Ying Cheung	1	5	0	0	20.00
Zeefa Jilanicaught · Hiu Ying Cheung · Iqra Sahar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hiu Ying Cheung · b Iqra Sahar	0	1	0	0	0.00
Maryam Omarnot out 10 fours · 0 sixes	not out	65*	58	10	0	112.07
B Shanticaught · Natasha Miles · SYD Chan 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Natasha Miles · b SYD Chan	29	36	4	0	80.56
Amna Tariqbowled · Ruchitha Venkatesh 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ruchitha Venkatesh	0	5	0	0	0.00
Mariamma Hyder

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Iqra Sahar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	27	1	6.75	1
M Wai Siu0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	1	6.33	3
Ruchitha Venkatesh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	2	5.50	1
Kary Chan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	13	0	3.25	0
M Kaur0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	16	0	8.00	0
SYD Chan1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	13	3	4.33	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	2	3/2
3	10	13/2
4	10	23/2
5	6	29/2
6	11	40/2
7	10	50/2
8	7	57/2
9	8	65/2
10	2	67/2
11	8	75/2
12	1	76/2
13	2	78/2
14	3	81/2
15	4	85/2
16	0	85/3
17	5	90/5
18	8	98/6
19	7	105/7
20	5	110/8

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