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Photo: Amuzujoe
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
African Games · 2023/24 · Men
21 Mar 2024 · T20
Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photographRecorded result
Zimbabwe more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 61%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (Kenya: 0% to 51%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collins Obuyacaught · Owen Muzondo · Kudakwashe Macheka 4 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Owen Muzondo · b Kudakwashe Macheka | 52 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 179.31 |
| N Mugabelbw · Wallace Mubayiwa 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Wallace Mubayiwa | 20 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 117.65 |
 Sukhdeep Singhcaught · Tashinga Musekiwa · Owen Muzondo1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tashinga Musekiwa · b Owen Muzondo | 12 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
 Rakep Patelcaught · Tony Munyonga · Owen Muzondo0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tony Munyonga · b Owen Muzondo | 8 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
| caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Owen Muzondo |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Shem Ngochecaught and bowled · Owen Muzondo 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Owen Muzondo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Lucas Oluochbowled · Kudakwashe Macheka 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kudakwashe Macheka | 13 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 61.90 |
|---|
| Francis Mutuacaught · Kudakwashe Macheka · Tashinga Musekiwa 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kudakwashe Macheka · b Tashinga Musekiwa | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Emmanuel Bundicaught · Johnathan Campbell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · b Johnathan Campbell | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
 Vishil Patelcaught · Rodney Mupfudza · Kudakwashe Macheka0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rodney Mupfudza · b Kudakwashe Macheka | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Aarnav Patelnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Muzondo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevor Gwandu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Wallace Mubayiwa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Kudakwashe Macheka0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 39 | 3 | 11.14 | 1 | 2 |
| Tashinga Musekiwa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Johnathan Campbell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-45 (N Mugabe, 4.2) · 2-71 (Sukhdeep Singh, 8.3) · 3-96 (Collins Obuya, 11.5) · 4-96 (Rakep Patel, 12.2) · 5-96 (Shem Ngoche, 12.3) · 6-97 (Nelson Odhiambo, 13.0) · 7-100 (Francis Mutua, 14.0) · 8-112 (Emmanuel Bundi, 16.4) · 9-121 (Lucas Oluoch, 18.0) · 10-126 (Vishil Patel, 19.3)
Recorded target: 197 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 23/0 |
| 4 | 22 | 45/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 51/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 53/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 59/1 |
| 8 | 11 | 70/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 72/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 81/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 86/2 |
| 12 | 10 | 96/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 97/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 100/7 |
| 15 | 1 | 101/7 |
| 16 | 10 | 111/7 |
| 17 | 2 | 113/8 |
| 18 | 8 | 121/9 |
| 19 | 5 | 126/9 |
| 20 | 0 | 126/10 |
Vishil Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Johnathan Campbell: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rakep Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sukhdeep Singh: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rodney Mupfudza: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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