West IndiesversusBangladesh

29 Oct 2025 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 14 runs

West Indies20.0 overs149/9 Bangladesh20.0 overs135/8 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

38%West Indies62%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than West Indies (1,557 vs 1,488 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 6 and Bangladesh won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 37%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 15% to 99% during the match (Bangladesh: 1% to 85%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.5: JO Holder to Saif Hassan, Saif Hassan out. West Indies up from 29% to 41%.
2nd inns 17.1: R Shepherd to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. West Indies up from 32% to 47%.
2nd inns 18.1: JO Holder to Shamim Hossain, Shamim Hossain out. West Indies up from 58% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies149/9 Bangladesh135/8

Innings 2

Bangladesh

135/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Saif Hassancaught · Brandon King · Jason Holder 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Brandon King · b Jason Holder	5	11	0	0	45.45
Tanzid Hasancaught · Brandon King · Romario Shepherd 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Brandon King · b Romario Shepherd	61	48	3	3	127.08
Litton Dasbowled · Akeal Hosein 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Akeal Hosein	23	17	4	0	135.29
Tawhid Hridoycaught · Jayden Seales · Romario Shepherd 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jayden Seales · b Romario Shepherd	12	14	1	0	85.71

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Jayden Seales0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	0	7.50	2	0
Jason Holder0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	2	5.00	1	0
Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	29	3	7.25	1	1
Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	0	7.00	0	0
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	3	5.50	1	0
Khary Pierre0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	5	7/0
3	5	12/0
4	2	14/1
5	14	28/1
6	9	37/1
7	4	41/1
8	9	50/2
9	10	60/2
10	5	65/2
11	7	72/2
12	13	85/2
13	1	86/3
14	2	88/3
15	12	100/3
16	8	108/3
17	9	117/3
18	7	124/5
19	5	129/6
20	6	135/8

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