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Asian Cricket Council Men's Challenger Cup · 2023/24 · Men
1 Feb 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Bhutan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Indonesia started on 30%; Indonesia batted first.
Indonesia's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Bhutan: 1% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenjin Rabgeybowled · F Banunaek 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b F Banunaek | 8 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 38.10 |
| JN Dorjicaught · Danilson Hawoe · F Banunaek 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Danilson Hawoe · b F Banunaek | 17 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 80.95 |
| Ranjung Mikyo Dorjibowled · Kadek Gamantika 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kadek Gamantika | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 72.73 |
| S Pradhancaught · Gede Priandana · Gede Arta 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Gede Priandana · b Gede Arta | 28 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 140.00 |
| Tashi Phuntshocaught · Kadek Gamantika · RM Koda 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kadek Gamantika · b RM Koda | 15 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
| caught · Gede Priandana · b Kadek Gamantika |
| 23 |
| 11 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 209.09 |
| Namgang Chejaycaught · Kadek Gamantika · RM Koda 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kadek Gamantika · b RM Koda | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| T Wangchukrun out · RM Koda · PR Surve 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · RM Koda | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| S Lodaynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Namgay Thinleycaught and bowled · PR Surve 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b PR Surve | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Ngawang Thinleycaught · Kadek Gamantika · PR Surve 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kadek Gamantika · b PR Surve | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RM Koda0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Danilson Hawoe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
| F Banunaek0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| PR Surve0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.64 | 0 | 0 |
| Ketut Artawan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Kadek Gamantika0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Gede Arta0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-22 (JN Dorji, 5.4) · 2-31 (Tenjin Rabgey, 7.5) · 3-51 (Ranjung Mikyo Dorji, 10.4) · 4-71 (S Pradhan, 13.3) · 5-100 (Thinley Jamtsho, 16.3) · 6-110 (Namgang Chejay, 18.1) · 7-111 (Tashi Phuntsho, 18.4) · 8-114 (T Wangchuk, 19.1) · 9-114 (Namgay Thinley, 19.2) · 10-116 (Ngawang Thinley, 19.4)
Recorded target: 133 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 22/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 24/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 29/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 32/2 |
| 9 | 12 | 44/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 48/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 53/3 |
| 12 | 10 | 63/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 68/3 |
| 14 | 9 | 77/4 |
| 15 | 6 | 83/4 |
| 16 | 12 | 95/4 |
| 17 | 7 | 102/5 |
| 18 | 8 | 110/5 |
| 19 | 3 | 113/7 |
| 20 | 3 | 116/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.