New ZealandversusAustralia

1 Oct 2025 · T20

Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 6 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs181/6 Australia16.3 overs185/4 Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

50%New Zealand50%Australia

Why

New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 6 and New Zealand won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,735 vs 1,723 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 48%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Australia: 38% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: JR Hazlewood to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. Australia up from 48% to 63%.
1.3: BJ Dwarshuis to DP Conway, DP Conway out. Australia up from 63% to 74%.
1.4: BJ Dwarshuis to MS Chapman, MS Chapman out. Australia up from 74% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand181/6 Australia185/4

Innings 2

Australia

185/416.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mitchell Marshcaught · Tim Robinson · Matt Henry 9 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Tim Robinson · b Matt Henry	85	43	9	5	197.67
Travis Headcaught · Mark Chapman · Matt Henry 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mark Chapman · b Matt Henry	31	18	6	0	172.22
Matthew Shortlbw · Kyle Jamieson 2 fours · 2 sixes	lbw · b Kyle Jamieson	29	18	2	2	161.11
Tim Davidnot out 1 fours · 2 sixes	not out	21*	12	1	2	175.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Matt Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	2	10.75	0
Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	0	10.33	2
Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	35	1	14.00	1
Kyle Jamieson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	46	1	11.50	0
Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	0	9.67	4

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	12	22/0
3	9	31/0
4	14	45/0
5	14	59/0
6	9	68/1
7	16	84/1
8	6	90/1
9	21	111/1
10	11	122/1
11	13	135/1
12	10	145/2
13	5	150/2
14	7	157/2
15	11	168/3
16	12	180/3
17	5	185/4

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