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Pakistan ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
18 Oct 2026 · ODI
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 70%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Fahim Ashraf · Shaheen Afridi 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fahim Ashraf · b Shaheen Afridi | 44 | 50 | 4 | 0 | 88.00 |
| Avishka Fernandocaught · Fahim Ashraf · Naseem Shah 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fahim Ashraf · b Naseem Shah | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Saim Ayub · Fahim Ashraf 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Fahim Ashraf | 18 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 52.94 |
| Pavan Rathnayakecaught · Salman Ali Agha · Fahim Ashraf 6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Fahim Ashraf | 79 | 74 | 6 | 2 | 106.76 |
| Sahan Arachchigecaught · Saad Baig · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saad Baig · b Shaheen Afridi | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 56%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 60.00 |
 Janith Liyanagecaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Haris Rauf5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Haris Rauf | 60 | 74 | 5 | 0 | 81.08 |
|---|
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Shaheen Afridi 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Shaheen Afridi | 28 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 155.56 |
|---|
| Sachindu Colombagecaught · Saad Baig · Naseem Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saad Baig · b Naseem Shah | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Eshan Malingarun out · Mohammad Babar Azam, Saad Baig · Naseem Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mohammad Babar Azam, Saad Baig | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandobowled · Haris Rauf 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Haris Rauf | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Dilshan Madushankanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 17 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 3 | 5.50 | 3 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 10 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 2 | 4.30 | 10 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 5.24 | 1 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 6.13 | 3 | 0 |
| Arafat Minhas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 6.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-30 (Avishka Fernando, 5.3) · 2-66 (Kusal Mendis, 13.5) · 3-83 (Kamindu Mendis, 17.5) · 4-91 (Sahan Arachchige, 19.3) · 5-210 (Pavan Rathnayake, 37.2) · 6-253 (Janith Liyanage, 43.4) · 7-256 (Dasun Shanaka, 44.2) · 8-260 (Sachindu Colombage, 45.4) · 9-260 (Eshan Malinga, 45.5) · 10-268 (Asitha Fernando, 48.1)
Recorded target: 306 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 33/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 34/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 39/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 42/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 47/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 55/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 60/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 66/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 70/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 75/2 |
| 18 | 9 | 84/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 90/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 91/4 |
| 21 | 6 | 97/4 |
| 22 | 5 | 102/4 |
| 23 | 8 | 110/4 |
| 24 | 11 | 121/4 |
| 25 | 6 | 127/4 |
| 26 | 9 | 136/4 |
| 27 | 8 | 144/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 146/4 |
| 29 | 8 | 154/4 |
| 30 | 5 | 159/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 162/4 |
| 32 | 15 | 177/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 180/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 187/4 |
| 35 | 9 | 196/4 |
| 36 | 6 | 202/4 |
| 37 | 8 | 210/4 |
| 38 | 5 | 215/5 |
| 39 | 2 | 217/5 |
| 40 | 7 | 224/5 |
| 41 | 14 | 238/5 |
| 42 | 10 | 248/5 |
| 43 | 3 | 251/5 |
| 44 | 2 | 253/6 |
| 45 | 4 | 257/7 |
| 46 | 3 | 260/9 |
| 47 | 3 | 263/9 |
| 48 | 5 | 268/9 |
| 49 | 0 | 268/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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