Islamabad UnitedversusQuetta Gladiators

15 Mar 2024 · T20

National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Islamabad United won by 39 runs

Islamabad United20.0 overs174/9 Quetta Gladiators18.4 overs135/10 National Stadium, Karachi ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Islamabad United started on 48%; Islamabad United batted first.

Islamabad United’s chance of winning (%) · Quetta Gladiators is the rest

Islamabad United's chances ranged from 38% to 100% during the match (Quetta Gladiators: 0% to 63%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.6: Imad Wasim to Saud Shakeel, Saud Shakeel out. Islamabad United up from 48% to 60%.
2nd inns 1.2: Naseem Shah to JJ Roy, JJ Roy out. Islamabad United up from 61% to 73%.
2nd inns 2.3: Imad Wasim to RR Rossouw, RR Rossouw out. Islamabad United up from 71% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Islamabad United174/9 Quetta Gladiators135/10

Innings 1