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Asian Games Women's Cricket Competition · 2026 · Women
18 Sept 2026 · T20
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 16%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 0% to 18% during the match (India: 82% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H Iwasakicaught · Shafali Verma · Shree Charani 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shafali Verma · b Shree Charani | 10 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
| A Kato-Staffordcaught · G Kamalini · Shafali Verma 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · G Kamalini · b Shafali Verma | 25 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 53.19 |
| Mai Yanagidacaught · Richa Ghosh · Shree Charani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richa Ghosh · b Shree Charani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Erika Odacaught · Shreyanka Patil · Deepti Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyanka Patil · b Deepti Sharma | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 35.71 |
| S Katocaught · Harmanpreet Kaur · Shafali Verma 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harmanpreet Kaur · b Shafali Verma | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
| A Kanocaught · Bharati Fulmali · Shree Charani 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Bharati Fulmali · b Shree Charani |
| 2 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 22.22 |
| H Gotorun out · Richa Ghosh, Smriti Mandhana · Shafali Verma 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Richa Ghosh, Smriti Mandhana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| A Chandelrun out · Richa Ghosh, Nandani Sharma · Deepti Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Richa Ghosh, Nandani Sharma | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| A Fujikawanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| E Toguchi-Quinncaught · Shafali Verma · Shree Charani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shafali Verma · b Shree Charani | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nonoha Yasumotobowled · Shreyanka Patil 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shreyanka Patil | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kranti Goud0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nandani Sharma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Shree Charani2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Shreyanka Patil0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2.09 | 2 | 0 |
 Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Shafali Verma0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.25 | 2 | 0 |
1-24 (H Iwasaki, 6.2) · 2-24 (Mai Yanagida, 6.3) · 3-33 (Erika Oda, 12.0) · 4-46 (A Kato-Stafford, 14.2) · 5-51 (S Kato, 16.3) · 6-52 (H Goto, 16.4) · 7-52 (A Chandel, 17.2) · 8-56 (A Kano, 18.2) · 9-56 (E Toguchi-Quinn, 18.4) · 10-57 (Nonoha Yasumoto, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 21/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 24/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 24/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 27/2 |
| 9 | 0 | 27/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 30/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 32/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 33/3 |
| 13 | 6 | 39/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 46/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 47/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 48/4 |
| 17 | 4 | 52/6 |
| 18 | 3 | 55/7 |
| 19 | 1 | 56/9 |
| 20 | 1 | 57/10 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shafali Verma: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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