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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
17 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Jersey more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Jersey started on 60%; Jersey batted first.
Jersey's chances ranged from 61% to 100% during the match (Cyprus: 0% to 39%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Carlyoncaught · Ruel Brathwaite · Waqar Ali 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ruel Brathwaite · b Waqar Ali | 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| Patrick Gougecaught · Ruel Brathwaite · Adam Senn 1 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Ruel Brathwaite · b Adam Senn | 37 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 185.00 |
| Nick Greenwoodcaught · Ruel Brathwaite · Adam Senn 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ruel Brathwaite · b Adam Senn | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 145.45 |
| Jonty Jennercaught · Adam Senn · Karan Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Adam Senn · b Karan Singh | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Zak Tribecaught · Taranjit Singh · Adam Senn 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Taranjit Singh · b Adam Senn | 18 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Julius Sumerauercaught · R Mazumder · Adam Senn 3 fours · 4 sixes |
|---|
| caught · R Mazumder · b Adam Senn |
| 43 |
| 16 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 268.75 |
| Charlie Brennanbowled · Taranjit Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Taranjit Singh | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Benjamin Wardnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 24* | 16 | 2 | 1 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Dominic Blampiedbowled · Taranjit Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Taranjit Singh | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Charles Perchardcaught · Adam Senn · Waqar Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Adam Senn · b Waqar Ali | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
| G Richardsonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waqar Ali0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 9.75 | 3 | 0 |
| Karan Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
| A Shahi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 8.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Adam Senn0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 4 | 8.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Ruel Brathwaite0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Taranjit Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-20 (Harrison Carlyon, 2.2) · 2-51 (Nick Greenwood, 5.2) · 3-66 (Patrick Gouge, 7.1) · 4-84 (Jonty Jenner, 9.4) · 5-119 (Zak Tribe, 13.1) · 6-136 (Julius Sumerauer, 14.0) · 7-138 (Charlie Brennan, 14.5) · 8-147 (Dominic Blampied, 16.3) · 9-160 (Charles Perchard, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 27/1 |
| 4 | 14 | 41/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 51/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 55/2 |
| 7 | 11 | 66/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 75/3 |
| 9 | 8 | 83/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 84/4 |
| 11 | 4 | 88/4 |
| 12 | 14 | 102/4 |
| 13 | 17 | 119/4 |
| 14 | 17 | 136/6 |
| 15 | 3 | 139/7 |
| 16 | 4 | 143/7 |
| 17 | 11 | 154/8 |
| 18 | 2 | 156/8 |
| 19 | 4 | 160/9 |
| 20 | 12 | 172/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.