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Photo: St Kitts & Nevis Government; permission: https://www.flickr.com/photos/skngov/14733563912
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Bangladesh tour of West Indies · 2024/25 · Men
8 Dec 2024 · ODI
Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 50%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kinglbw · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib | 9 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 52.94 |
| Evin Lewislbw · Nahid Rana 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nahid Rana | 16 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 51.61 |
| Keacy Cartycaught · Mehedi Hasan · Rishad Hossain 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mehedi Hasan · b Rishad Hossain | 21 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 56.76 |
 Shai Hopecaught · Jaker Ali · Mehedi Hasan3 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Jaker Ali · b Mehedi Hasan | 86 | 88 | 3 | 4 | 97.73 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordcaught · Nahid Rana · Soumya Sarkar 7 fours · 8 sixes | caught · Nahid Rana · b Soumya Sarkar |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 88% during the match (West Indies: 12% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 113 |
| 80 |
| 7 |
| 8 |
| 141.25 |
| Justin Greavesnot out 5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 41* | 31 | 5 | 0 | 132.26 |
|---|
 Roston Chasenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taskin Ahmed1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 53 | 0 | 5.89 | 2 | 0 |
 Tanzim Hasan Sakib1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 55 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Nahid Rana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 50 | 1 | 5.77 | 1 | 0 |
 Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 5.44 | 0 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 62 | 1 | 6.89 | 0 | 1 |
 Soumya Sarkar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-27 (Brandon King, 7.5) · 2-27 (Evin Lewis, 8.1) · 3-94 (Keacy Carty, 21.4) · 4-193 (Shai Hope, 37.1) · 5-288 (Sherfane Rutherford, 46.4)
Recorded target: 295 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 20/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 21/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 25/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 27/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 33/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 42/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 45/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 50/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 54/2 |
| 15 | 8 | 62/2 |
| 16 | 8 | 70/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 71/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 75/2 |
| 19 | 10 | 85/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 87/2 |
| 21 | 6 | 93/2 |
| 22 | 1 | 94/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 100/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 101/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 109/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 112/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 115/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 120/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 122/3 |
| 30 | 8 | 130/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 134/3 |
| 32 | 12 | 146/3 |
| 33 | 8 | 154/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 160/3 |
| 35 | 9 | 169/3 |
| 36 | 11 | 180/3 |
| 37 | 13 | 193/3 |
| 38 | 5 | 198/4 |
| 39 | 6 | 204/4 |
| 40 | 8 | 212/4 |
| 41 | 13 | 225/4 |
| 42 | 10 | 235/4 |
| 43 | 15 | 250/4 |
| 44 | 9 | 259/4 |
| 45 | 3 | 262/4 |
| 46 | 8 | 270/4 |
| 47 | 21 | 291/5 |
| 48 | 4 | 295/5 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Mahmudullah: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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