BotswanaversusLesotho

13 Mar 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Botswana won by 104 runs

Botswana20.0 overs164/7 Lesotho14.1 overs60/10 Botswana Cricket Association Oval 1, Gaborone ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Botswana more likely to win

85%Botswana15%Lesotho

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Botswana rate stronger than Lesotho (1,438 vs 1,287 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Botswana won 5 and Lesotho won 0
Botswana are playing at home in Botswana

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Botswana started on 84%; Botswana batted first.

Botswana’s chance of winning (%) · Lesotho is the rest

Botswana's chances ranged from 85% to 100% during the match (Lesotho: 0% to 16%).

Biggest swings

4.2: TD Chaoana to V Balakrishnan, V Balakrishnan out. Lesotho up from 10% to 13%.
8.1: Mohammed Jamadar to Ameer Saiyed, Ameer Saiyed out. Lesotho up from 9% to 11%.
11.6: B Mejaro to V Mbazo, six by V Mbazo. Botswana up from 90% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Botswana164/7 Lesotho60/10

Innings 2

Lesotho

60/1014.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Lesotho batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
LM Gabrielrun out · V Mbazo, B Kgosiemang · K Piet 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · V Mbazo, B Kgosiemang	0	5	0	0.00
Abraar Khancaught · V Mbazo · Mmoloki Mooketsi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · V Mbazo · b Mmoloki Mooketsi	2	7	0	28.57
Mohammed Jamadarcaught · Mmoloki Mooketsi · Thatayaone Tshose 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mmoloki Mooketsi · b Thatayaone Tshose	31	32	4	96.88
Chachole Tlalicaught · V Mbazo · Mmoloki Mooketsi 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · V Mbazo · b Mmoloki Mooketsi	7	7	1	100.00
Waseem Yaqoobcaught · B Keganne · L Makgale 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · B Keganne · b L Makgale	1	2	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
K Piet1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	16	2	4.00	2
Mmoloki Mooketsi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	3	5.00	1
B Kgosiemang0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	0
L Makgale0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	1	3.00	0
Thatayaone Tshose0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	2	3.50	1
L Maphane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	0.1	0	0	1	0.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	6	6/1
3	9	15/1
4	8	23/2
5	10	33/2
6	3	36/2
7	3	39/3
8	3	42/4
9	1	43/4
10	3	46/5
11	2	48/7
12	4	52/8
13	5	57/8
14	3	60/9
15	0	60/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.