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Sri Lanka tour of Pakistan · 2025/26 · Men
14 Nov 2025 · ODI
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 32%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fakhar Zamancaught · Janith Liyanage · Dushmantha Chameera8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Janith Liyanage · b Dushmantha Chameera | 78 | 93 | 8 | 1 | 83.87 |
| Saim Ayubcaught · Charith Asalanka · Dushmantha Chameera 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Charith Asalanka · b Dushmantha Chameera | 33 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 132.00 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamnot out8 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 102* | 119 | 8 | 0 | 85.71 |
 Mohammad Rizwannot out5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 51* | 54 | 5 | 1 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (Pakistan: 48% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 94.44 |
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 18 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.2 | 0 | 66 | 0 | 7.92 | 1 | 1 |
| Pramod Madushan0 maidens · 13 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 7.75 | 13 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 58 | 2 | 5.80 | 2 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Janith Liyanage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 3.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-77 (Saim Ayub, 9.4) · 2-177 (Fakhar Zaman, 30.5)
Recorded target: 289 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 33/0 |
| 5 | 16 | 49/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 54/0 |
| 7 | 11 | 65/0 |
| 8 | 8 | 73/0 |
| 9 | 3 | 76/0 |
| 10 | 1 | 77/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 81/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 84/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 85/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 92/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 96/1 |
| 16 | 8 | 104/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 106/1 |
| 18 | 5 | 111/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 116/1 |
| 20 | 8 | 124/1 |
| 21 | 5 | 129/1 |
| 22 | 2 | 131/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 135/1 |
| 24 | 8 | 143/1 |
| 25 | 3 | 146/1 |
| 26 | 4 | 150/1 |
| 27 | 1 | 151/1 |
| 28 | 3 | 154/1 |
| 29 | 10 | 164/1 |
| 30 | 6 | 170/1 |
| 31 | 7 | 177/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 182/2 |
| 33 | 8 | 190/2 |
| 34 | 4 | 194/2 |
| 35 | 3 | 197/2 |
| 36 | 12 | 209/2 |
| 37 | 3 | 212/2 |
| 38 | 8 | 220/2 |
| 39 | 7 | 227/2 |
| 40 | 8 | 235/2 |
| 41 | 12 | 247/2 |
| 42 | 6 | 253/2 |
| 43 | 5 | 258/2 |
| 44 | 1 | 259/2 |
| 45 | 9 | 268/2 |
| 46 | 8 | 276/2 |
| 47 | 7 | 283/2 |
| 48 | 4 | 287/2 |
| 49 | 2 | 289/2 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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