ZimbabweversusAustralia

13 Feb 2026 · T20

R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 23 runs

Zimbabwe20.0 overs169/2 Australia19.3 overs146/10 R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

33%Zimbabwe67%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,695 vs 1,602 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 2 and Zimbabwe won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 30%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 71%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.1: B Muzarabani to JP Inglis, JP Inglis out. Zimbabwe up from 44% to 55%.
2nd inns 2.5: B Evans to C Green, C Green out. Zimbabwe up from 53% to 67%.
2nd inns 14.2: RP Burl to GJ Maxwell, GJ Maxwell out. Zimbabwe up from 72% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe169/2 Australia146/10

Innings 2

Australia

146/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Josh Ingliscaught · Tashinga Musekiwa · Blessing Muzarabani 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tashinga Musekiwa · b Blessing Muzarabani	8	4	0	1	200.00
Travis Headbowled · Brad Evans 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Brad Evans	17	15	3	0	113.33
Cameron Greencaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Brad Evans 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Brad Evans	0	2	0	0	0.00
Tim Davidcaught · Graeme Cremer · Blessing Muzarabani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Graeme Cremer · b Blessing Muzarabani

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	0
Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	4	4.25	0
Brad Evans0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	23	3	6.57	1
Dion Myers0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	1
Graeme Cremer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	0	8.25	0
Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	0
Ryan Burl0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	1	9.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	13	13/0
2	6	19/1
3	5	24/2
4	4	28/3
5	6	34/4
6	4	38/4
7	4	42/4
8	9	51/4
9	11	62/4
10	5	67/4
11	5	72/4
12	11	83/4
13	10	93/4
14	12	105/4
15	9	114/5
16	8	122/6
17	7	129/6
18	7	136/7
19	5	141/9
20	5	146/10

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