EnglandversusNew Zealand

22 Mar 2024 · T20

Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 15 runs

England20.0 overs149/7 New Zealand20.0 overs134/8 Saxton Oval, Nelson ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

75%England25%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than New Zealand (1,701 vs 1,555 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 8 and New Zealand won 2
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 73%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

England's chances ranged from 48% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 52%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.1: LCN Smith to SW Bates, SW Bates out. England up from 70% to 80%.
2nd inns 7.3: CE Dean to SFM Devine, SFM Devine out. England up from 71% to 81%.
2nd inns 14.4: DR Gibson to AC Kerr, AC Kerr out. England up from 62% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England149/7 New Zealand134/8

Innings 1

England

149/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sophia Dunkleycaught · Brooke Halliday · Sophie Devine 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Brooke Halliday · b Sophie Devine	2	5	0	0	40.00
Tammy Beaumontbowled · Sophie Devine 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sophie Devine	19	13	3	0	146.15
Maia Bouchiercaught · Amelia Kerr · Rosemary Mair 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amelia Kerr · b Rosemary Mair	12	20	1	0	60.00
Heather Knightnot out 4 fours · 2 sixes	not out	56*	40	4	2

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Jess Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	0	5.00	0	0
Sophie Devine0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	30	2	10.00	2	1
Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	1	10.00	0	0
Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	1	0
Fran Jonas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	0	0
Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	1	8.67	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	9	12/1
3	1	13/1
4	13	26/1
5	5	31/1
6	3	34/2
7	3	37/2
8	2	39/3
9	10	49/3
10	8	57/4
11	7	64/4
12	6	70/4
13	7	77/5
14	3	80/6
15	10	90/6
16	10	100/6
17	12	112/6
18	10	122/6
19	9	131/7
20	18	149/7

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