Sharjah WarriorzversusDesert Vipers

25 Jan 2025 · T20

Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Desert Vipers won by 8 wickets

Sharjah Warriorz20.0 overs151/8 Desert Vipers14.5 overs152/2 Sharjah Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sharjah Warriorz started on 44%; Sharjah Warriorz batted first.

Sharjah Warriorz’s chance of winning (%) · Desert Vipers is the rest

Sharjah Warriorz's chances ranged from 0% to 58% during the match (Desert Vipers: 42% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: DA Payne to J Charles, J Charles out. Desert Vipers up from 57% to 67%.
2nd inns 3.4: AF Milne to Fakhar Zaman, Fakhar Zaman out. Sharjah Warriorz up from 31% to 42%.
2nd inns 3.6: AF Milne to DW Lawrence, DW Lawrence out. Sharjah Warriorz up from 43% to 58%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.