**Basin Reserve, Wellington**
Photo: PaddyBriggs
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2023/24 · Men

CanterburyversusWellington

22 Jan 2024 · T20

Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Canterbury won by 18 runs

Canterbury20.0 overs178/4 Wellington20.0 overs160/9 Basin Reserve, Wellington ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Canterbury started on 47%; Canterbury batted first.

Canterbury’s chance of winning (%) · Wellington is the rest

Canterbury's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (Wellington: 0% to 64%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.6: MD Rae to NF Kelly, NF Kelly out. Canterbury up from 47% to 60%.
2nd inns 6.3: MD Rae to MA Abbas, MA Abbas out. Canterbury up from 57% to 70%.
2nd inns 14.1: W O'Rourke to CR McLachlan, CR McLachlan out. Canterbury up from 69% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Wellington chose to field
Player of the match: Henry Nicholls
match referees: K Pulley
reserve umpires: A Stanley
tv umpires: Glen Walklin
umpires: JM Dempsey, PJ Pasco

Match history & source

On 22 Jan 2024, Canterbury played Wellington at Basin Reserve, Wellington. Recorded result: Canterbury won by 18 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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