BhutanversusMyanmar

29 Dec 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bhutan won by 84 runs

Bhutan20.0 overs139/8 Myanmar20.0 overs55/8 Gelephu International Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bhutan more likely to win

88%Bhutan12%Myanmar

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bhutan rate stronger than Myanmar (1,390 vs 1,196 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Bhutan won 5 and Myanmar won 0
Bhutan are playing at home in Bhutan

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bhutan started on 88%; Bhutan batted first.

Bhutan’s chance of winning (%) · Myanmar is the rest

Bhutan's chances ranged from 68% to 100% during the match (Myanmar: 0% to 32%).

Biggest swings

1.6: H Lin Aung to Tenjin Rabgey, Namgay Thinley out. Myanmar up from 15% to 22%.
2nd inns 2.3: T Wangchuk to Pyae Phyo Wai, Pyae Phyo Wai out. Bhutan up from 74% to 82%.
2nd inns 3.1: Tashi Phuntsho to Nyeing Cham Soe, Nyeing Cham Soe out. Bhutan up from 83% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bhutan139/8 Myanmar55/8

Innings 1

Bhutan

139/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bhutan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Namgay Thinleyrun out · Myat Thu Aung, Kaung Ko Ko · Htet Lin Aung 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Myat Thu Aung, Kaung Ko Ko	2	2	0	0	100.00
Tshering Tashibowled · Htet Lin Aung 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Htet Lin Aung	4	6	1	0	66.67
Tenjin Rabgeyrun out · Nyein Cham Soe, Htet Lin Aung · Nyein Cham Soe 9 fours · 3 sixes	run out · Nyein Cham Soe, Htet Lin Aung	74	56	9	3	132.14
Ranjung Mikyo Dorjibowled · Ye Ko Ko 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ye Ko Ko	28	25	4	0	112.00
Namgang Chejaystumped · Kaung Ko Ko · Pyae Phyo Wai 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Kaung Ko Ko · b Pyae Phyo Wai	6	11	0	0	54.55

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Pyae Phyo Wai0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	3
Htet Lin Aung0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	1
Ko Ko Lin Thu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	0	6.50	0
Thuya Aung0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	0	3.25	0
Ye Ko Ko0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	1
Nyein Cham Soe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	31	2	15.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	5	10/2
3	8	18/2
4	11	29/2
5	10	39/2
6	9	48/2
7	7	55/2
8	5	60/2
9	6	66/2
10	3	69/2
11	8	77/3
12	3	80/3
13	8	88/3
14	2	90/3
15	6	96/3
16	4	100/4
17	18	118/6
18	1	119/6
19	13	132/7
20	7	139/8

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