NigeriaversusSierra Leone

27 Sept 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Nigeria won by 71 runs

Nigeria19.4 overs136/10 Sierra Leone19.0 overs65/10 Tafawa Balewa Square Cricket Oval, Lagos ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nigeria more likely to win

89%Nigeria11%Sierra Leone

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nigeria rate stronger than Sierra Leone (1,489 vs 1,297 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Nigeria won 10 and Sierra Leone won 0
Nigeria are playing at home in Nigeria

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nigeria started on 89%; Nigeria batted first.

Nigeria’s chance of winning (%) · Sierra Leone is the rest

Nigeria's chances ranged from 76% to 100% during the match (Sierra Leone: 0% to 24%).

Biggest swings

14.1: R Coker to R Abdulkareem, R Abdulkareem out. Sierra Leone up from 14% to 18%.
16.4: G Sesay to IO Okpe, IO Okpe out. Sierra Leone up from 20% to 24%.
2nd inns 2.3: Abdullahi Ismail to D Halloway, D Halloway out. Nigeria up from 87% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nigeria136/10 Sierra Leone65/10

Innings 2

Sierra Leone

65/1019.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sierra Leone batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
R Cokerbowled · Abdullahi Ismail 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Abdullahi Ismail	22	49	0	0	44.90
D Hallowaybowled · Abdullahi Ismail 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Abdullahi Ismail	1	7	0	0	14.29
A Turaycaught · Sulaimon Runsewe · Abdullahi Ismail 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sulaimon Runsewe · b Abdullahi Ismail	0	1	0	0	0.00
AB Kamaracaught · Selim Salau · Vincent Adewoye 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Selim Salau · b Vincent Adewoye	3	7	0	0	42.86
EM Turayrun out · Selim Salau · M Akhigbe 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Selim Salau	4	13	0	0	30.77

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Abdullahi Ismail1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	8	4	2.00	0
M Akhigbe0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	8	1	2.67	2
Chima Akachukwu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	1	3.33	0
Vincent Adewoye0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	16	2	5.33	0
Isaac Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	0	3.00	0
K Boniface0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	5	0	2.50	0
R Abdulkareem0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	8	1	4.00	4

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	1	3/0
3	0	3/2
4	7	10/2
5	3	13/2
6	2	15/3
7	2	17/3
8	6	23/3
9	2	25/3
10	2	27/4
11	4	31/4
12	1	32/4
13	5	37/4
14	4	41/4
15	4	45/5
16	5	50/6
17	5	55/8
18	8	63/9
19	2	65/10

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