Birmingham BearsversusSomerset

24 May 2026 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Somerset won by 7 wickets

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs189/6 Somerset18.2 overs193/3 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 42%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Somerset is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 0% to 64% during the match (Somerset: 36% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.2: C Overton to AL Davies, AL Davies out. Somerset up from 43% to 54%.
2nd inns 3.1: OJ Hannon-Dalby to WCF Smeed, WCF Smeed out. Birmingham Bears up from 47% to 60%.
2nd inns 8.2: EG Barnard to JEK Rew, T Banton out. Birmingham Bears up from 30% to 42%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears189/6 Somerset193/3

Innings 1